The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index inched up by 0.6 points to 91.2 (1985=100) in June, up from a downwardly revised 90.6 in May. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – fell by 3.0 points to 116.4. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions – rose by 3.0 points to 74.4. The survey period for this month’s preliminary results was June 1–23, encompassing an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement.
“Consumer confidence inched up in June as falling oil prices in recent weeks provided some relief to consumer inflation fears,” said Dana M Peterson, chief economist, The Conference Board. “Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were slightly more positive compared to last month. However, perceptions of the current labor market softened measurably as the percentage of consumers saying jobs were ‘hard to get’ rose to 22.5%, the highest level since January 2021 (22.8%). Moreover, consumers anticipate little change in the labor market six months from now. This was offset by improving expectations for business conditions and incomes.”
The Present Situation Index declined in June. Net views of current business conditions – the share saying conditions are “good” versus “bad” – improved by 1 ppt to +3.5%. However, perceptions of current employment conditions declined, with the labor market differential – the share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” minus the share saying jobs are “hard to get” – declining by 2.6 ppts to just +2.4%. Notably, the percentage of consumers saying jobs are “hard to get” rose to 22.5%, a five-and-a-half-year high (January 2021, 22.8%).
The Expectations Index improved in June, with two of its three components – net expectations for business and expected household income six months from now both improving. Net expectations for labor market conditions were unchanged.
