Total new-vehicle sales for June 2024, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach between 1,336,800 and 1,273,600 units, a 2.6% to 7.2% decrease from June 2023, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData. June 2024 has 26 selling days, the same as June 2023.

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be between 14.7 million and 15.4 million units, down between 0.7 million and 1.4 million units from June 2023.

New-vehicle total sales for the first half of 2024 are projected to finish between 7,794,500 units and 7,857,700 units, a 0.4% to 1.2% increase from the first half of 2023 on a selling day adjusted basis. H1’24 has 154 selling days, two more than H1’23. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 1.7% to 2.5% from a year ago.

“Because of the disruption to dealer software systems, June sales will not be reflective of actual consumer demand for new vehicles,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power.“Instead, a significant number of sales that would have occurred in June are now likely to occur in July.” Retail inventory is projected to finish around 1.8 million units, a 4.5% increase from May 2024 and a 41.6% increase from June 2023. Fleet mix is projected at 20.5%, up 0.6 percentage points from June 2023.