Used Values Set Record…Again

By Staff Writer September 09, 2020

Wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased 3.64 percent month-over-month in August. This brought the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to 163.7, a 15.8 percent increase from a year ago and a record high for the Index.

Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices improved at a decelerating pace over the four full weeks of August, resulting in a 1.6 percent cumulative increase on the Three-Year-Old Index. In the last full week of August, the Three-Year-Old Index declined 0.1 percent, ending the streak of 16 weeks of price appreciation. MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to current MMR, averaged 100.5 percent for the month and ended the month under 100 percent for four of the last five days. Likewise, the sales conversion rate declined over the course of August but remained higher than normal for this time of the year.

On a year-over-year basis, all major market segments saw seasonally adjusted price increases in August. Luxury cars and pickup trucks outperformed the overall market, while most other major segments underperformed the overall market.

According to Cox Automotive estimates, total used vehicle sales volume was down 4 percent year-over-year in August. Cox estimates the August used SAAR to be 38.0 million, down from 39.7 million last August and flat compared to July. The August used retail SAAR estimate is 20.3 million, down from 20.7 million last year and slightly down month-over-month from July’s 20.4 million rate.

 

Used vehicle prices have recovered as the supply of used vehicles has come down. Using a rolling seven-day estimate of used retail days’ supply based on vAuto data, we see that used retail supply peaked at 115 days on April 8. Normal used retail supply is about 44 days’ supply. It ended August at 38 days, so lower than normal. Cox estimates that wholesale supply peaked at 149 days on April 9, when normal supply is 23. It was down to 24 days by month end.

August total new vehicle sales were down 19 percent year-over-year, with two fewer selling days compared to August 2019. The August SAAR came in at 15.2 million, a decrease from last year’s 17.1 million but up from July’s 14.6 million rate.

The average price for rental risk units sold at auction in August was up 8.4 percent year-over-year. Rental risk prices were up 2 percent compared to July. Average mileage for rental risk units in August (at 39,500 miles) was down 17 percent compared to a year ago and down 15 percent month-over-month.

 

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index August 2020
163.7 15.8 percent/January 1995 = 100

 

Rate this item
(2 votes)
Last modified on Monday, 14 September 2020 13:57